Market Outlook 2023: Navigating Economic Uncertainty

Market Outlook 2023: Navigating Uncertainty in Geopolitical and Macro-Economic Headwinds

As we enter 2023, the market outlook is facing a multitude of uncertainties as the geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds that plagued us in 2022 still persist. The global economy did not see the strength that many had hoped for, as unprecedented inflation swept through economies not seen in almost two generations.

The Fed and other central banks tightened monetary policy, widening credit spreads, and causing sell-offs across equity markets. Political strife in several areas across the globe did not help the situation either, and to top it off, we saw the biggest war in Europe since World War II with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Where are the markets now, and what can we expect for the future? While we cannot predict the future, it is reasonable to anticipate that many of the challenges we faced last year will continue to affect the market outlook for the foreseeable future. The Ukraine War, in particular, will likely have a significant impact on investor confidence as it continues to unfold. The direction of domestic and global inflation is another area of uncertainty.

While U.S. inflation seems to be slowing down, history has shown that we could still be returning to an accelerating pace of rising prices. This makes it difficult to predict how inflation will affect economic growth in a monetary tightening environment. Therefore, we should expect continued turbulence across asset classes, strategies, and markets.

Despite the challenges, there were some managers and strategies that successfully navigated the 2022 environment and generated strong returns for investors. These include global macro, equity market neutral, multi-strategy on the hedge fund side, and private credit, LBO, and some venture on the private markets side. These managers and strategies may be well-positioned to capitalize on global uncertainty if these trends continue in 2023.

As we face more uncertainties from a political, social, and economic point of view, this may be the start of a golden age for alternative assets. Alternative assets may provide a way for investors to diversify their portfolios and potentially generate strong returns in the face of continued market volatility.

2022 Year in Review

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To better understand the market outlook for 2023, we must first reflect on what happened in 2022. While there was a lot of volatility in prices, the year started and ended with almost identical rates of inflation (7.04% on Dec 31, 2021; and 7.11% on Nov 30, 2022). Despite this consistency, inflation had a significant impact on the markets, with low growth and rising rates causing credit spreads to widen and equities to sell off.

Alternative Assets Outperformed in 2022 Amidst Volatility and Uncertainty

In the world of finance, the year 2022 was marked by an unprecedented degree of volatility and uncertainty. As the Federal Reserve started to tighten monetary policy, raising the Federal Funds rate by 75 bps at its July meeting, the immediate impact on growth was apparent, with two quarters of contraction in the middle of the year and a significant slowdown in employment.

Meanwhile, consumer confidence and spending, as well as the housing market, remained robust, while business confidence, as measured by the ISM Purchasing Managers Index, only recently turned negative in Nov of 2022.

In public asset markets, nearly all USD-denominated risk assets experienced a year-over-year selloff, including the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, U.S. Treasuries, Barclays AGG, and cryptocurrencies, as well as some energy, agricultural, and industrial commodities prices. As a recent article in Vox put it, "the economy just doesn't make sense anymore."

However, despite this backdrop of turbulence, some alternative assets saw strong performance throughout 2022. Hedge funds, in particular, outperformed the S&P and AGG in 2022, with nearly every HFRI index delivering positive returns. Strategies that traditionally capitalize on high volatility and market uncertainty, such as Global Macro, saw particularly strong returns, with the HFRI Total Macro Index returning +9% over the last year, and the HFRI Equity Market Neutral Index seeing returns of nearly 2%.

On the private market side, while overall performance with private equity remained muted, private credit experienced enormous growth, driven by a handful of factors. As rates rose and risk appetite dropped, the primary market for syndicated and leveraged loans nearly evaporated, with a transition from banks being the primary source of funding to the direct lender ecosystem within private credit.

At the same time, investors' allocations to private credit have gone to a smaller pool of funds, as the private credit markets have started to mature, with investors finding themselves more selective when choosing a manager as the importance of diversification, track record, experience, and independent service providers rises to the forefront of investors' minds as recession fears loom.

Market Outlook for 2023: Insights for Investors

As the world enters 2023, uncertainty looms over the global economy. While it is challenging to predict the market outlook for this year, the events of 2022 offer insights into the factors that could affect the markets. In this article, we will look at some of the key issues that investors should consider before making investment decisions.

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Geopolitical Front: Tensions in Key Regions

Geopolitical factors such as war, civil unrest, and political tensions are likely to continue to affect markets in 2023. The ongoing war in Ukraine and tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea may have a significant impact on the public’s perception of the global economy. Additionally, the sociopolitical unrest that Iran experienced in the last several months may escalate, further affecting the markets.

The Impact of COVID-19

COVID-19 remains a critical factor affecting the global economy, and it is likely to continue to do so in 2023. As China shifts from its zero-COVID approach to a more open economy, we can expect some degree of social strife as society adjusts.

The resurgence in purchasing power experienced by China after the initial lull from COVID-19 in late 2020 could lead to supply chain bottlenecks that could spill over to other parts of the world. At the same time, the recent rise in cases and deaths in China could result in a reactionary shutdown, affecting its economy and industrial capacity.

Macro-economic Front: Inflation and GDP

Forecasting how inflation and GDP will perform is challenging. However, investors and analysts anticipate a slowdown, possibly even a mild recession in the US, as the Fed Reserve continues to restrict monetary policy. If inflation were to plummet faster than expected, rate hikes might decelerate, pause, or even reverse in 2023, as the effects of 2022’s rate hikes permeate throughout the economy.

Where Can Investors Turn This Year?

Given the high level of uncertainty in the global economy and political sphere, investors may be well placed to consider alternative investments. Global macro, a strategy where hedge fund managers nimbly play across marketplaces, countries, and asset classes, to capitalize on market dislocations, may be worth considering.

In a slow growth environment, equity market neutral may be effective at avoiding overall equity market beta. Private credit may also see outperformance, given the continued issues with regulatory treatment of private debt for banks removing the available supply of credit, credit spreads remaining elevated, and rates continuing to rise, as most private debt are floating rate assets.

LBO/take-private strategies may benefit from the weakness in public equity markets. Weaker overall economic growth can present opportunities for successful managers to strive to turn underperforming public companies around and effectively identify synergies and rectify inefficiencies within target companies.

Conclusion

While many of the challenges experienced in 2022 will continue to affect the economy and markets in 2023, this year may bring a host of new concerns, issues, and conflicts. Rather than worrying about the dynamics of individual assets and markets, investors may find it more effective to consider alternative assets that can capitalize on global uncertainty.

As such, many of the same strategies that performed well in 2022 may continue outperforming the public markets. Investors should identify managers with a long track record through multiple market cycles, diversified portfolios, skin in the game, and independent service providers. While many managers will reap great gains in 2023, investors should exercise caution and diversify their portfolios to strive to mitigate risks.

Innovative ways to plan a REIT Investment

A REIT generally has large investment properties in their portfolio. A REIT usually leases properties to tenants and earns income in the form of rent, which is then divided among its shareholders. In order to qualify as a REIT, a company must comply with the following rules –

The company must invest 75% of its assets in real estate, cash or treasuries.
It must receive 75% of its income from property rents, sale of its real estate or from the interest on the mortgages.
The company must distribute 90% of its income among its shareholders. The remaining 10% can be reinvested in new properties or assets.
A REIT must have at least 100 shareholders after one year of its existence.
Not more than 50% of the shares are owned by its five or fewer shareholders during the last half of the taxable year.
The company must be taxable as a corporation.
The company must be managed by a board of directors or trustees.

How a REIT generates revenue?

Most REITs lease properties to tenants and make money from the rents, which is then divided among the shareholders as dividends. The majority of REITs trade on the National Stock Exchange and can be easily bought or sold. On the other hand, some REITs lend money to investors and earn interests on the loan. As you can see, a REIT’s source of income varies depending upon the sector in which that particular REIT operates.

Varieties of REITs

Equity REIT – Equity REITs buy, own and sell investment properties. These REITs generate revenue through rents and not by selling real estate properties. They are publicly traded on the stock exchange.
Mortgage REIT – As the name suggests, Mortgage REITs lend money to investors and earn interests on the loan. They also borrow money at low-interest rates and then buy mortgages that could pay a higher return. The spread between the two interest rates is the REIT’s profit. For example, let’s say a REIT raises $20 million through its investors. It borrows another $50 million at an interest of 2% per annum or $1 million, which is the annual interest expense of borrowing. Now, it uses this $70 million for buying mortgages that pay 5% interest or $3.5 million, which is the annual interest income generated from the mortgage. The spread between these two interest rates will be the REIT’s profit, which in this case is –

Profit = (Annual interest income – annual interest expense)
=$(3.5-1) million
= $2.5 million.

Hybrid REIT – Hybrid REITs are the ones that own and lease investment properties as well as fund mortgage loans to real estate investors. Basically, it’s a mixture of Equity and Mortgage REITs.
Publicly Traded REITs – These REITs are listed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and trade on the National Stock Exchange. The shares of these REITs can be easily bought and sold. These REITs are regulated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Publicly Non-Traded REITs – These REITs are also registered with Securities and Exchange Commission but don’t trade on the National Stock Exchange. They are more illiquid than publicly traded REITs but could be more stable, as they are not subject to market fluctuations.
Private REITs – These REITs are neither listed with the Securities and Exchange Commission nor do they trade on the National Stock Exchange. They are accessible to only a few selected investors.

The majority of REITs are equity REITs. However, trusts like mortgage REITs or publicly traded REITs also have their own benefits. Therefore, it’s important that you speak to an experienced REIT advisor, who can guide you through each of these REITs more deeply. We do have a team of highly qualified advisors for you. In no time, you could speak to up to three advisors.